Children growing up in California, fabled land of opportunity, have a worse chance of achieving the American Dream than children in most other states, a new study says.

The real Golden State is Virginia, where children are most likely to become well-educated adults with steady, high-paying jobs, according to researchers from the nonprofit Editorial Projects in Education Research Center in Washington, D.C.

Children born in New Mexico were deemed least likely to succeed.

The researchers stacked up all the states and the District of Columbia against 13 measures of success, ranging from parents' employment and English fluency to children's test scores and graduation rates.

California ranked 34th among the states and was below the national average in seven areas: percent of children whose parents work full-time, speak English, graduated from college, earn at least a middle-level income; percent of children proficient in reading and proficient in math; and percent of adults who work full time.

California had by far the nation's lowest percentage of children whose parents speak fluent English: 62 percent. The next lowest was 73 percent, in Texas. Nearly everyone's parents speak English in Virginia: 91 percent.

"The idea we're trying to get across is that education plays an important role, but success is not just about the years of formal schooling," said Christopher Swanson, director of the research center. "What happens in your schooling is strongly influenced by what happens in your early years."

In other words, your family's income and parents' English skills make a difference.

No surprise there.

Yet despite California children's relatively dim prospects, the state's high academic expectations apparently counterbalance many disadvantages they face.

What the new report highlights is that states can do a lot with a cohesive education system, Swanson said, and California is a case in point -- especially when compared with last-ranked New Mexico.

Children born in California and New Mexico start out similarly disadvantaged, the researchers say.

Consider these national averages: Nearly 43 percent of children nationwide have at least one parent with a college degree. About 70 percent have at least one parent working full time. About 84 percent have parents who speak fluent English. And about 60 percent come from families earning at least twice the poverty level, which is $20,000 for a family of four.

Both California and New Mexico fall below all of those averages by similar amounts. So it might be expected that children from those states would do about the same academically and on the job.

But the report shows that once children reach the age of 3, Californians are more likely than New Mexicans to attend preschool and kindergarten, learn math, graduate and go on to higher education, though reading proficiency remains a problem.

"The school years is where things start to turn around for California," Swanson said. "Its school system is not the most stellar in the country, but it's holding its own and working with an educational population that's fairly challenging -- language issues, and a high amount of poverty that's not present in other areas of the country."

Here is how California stands against top-ranked Virginia and bottom-ranked New Mexico on the 13 indicators of success:

-- Children whose parents earn at least a middle income: New Mexico, 45 percent; California, 58 percent; Virginia, 70 percent.

-- Children with at least one college grad parent: New Mexico, 34%; California, 37%; Virginia, 51%.

-- Children with at least one parent working full time: New Mexico, 65%; California, 68%; Virginia, 76%.

-- Children whose parents speak English: New Mexico, 80%; California, 62%; Virginia, 91%.

-- Preschool enrollment: New Mexico, 39%; California, 46%; Virginia, 47%.

-- Kindergarten enrollment: New Mexico, 74%; California, 78%; Virginia, 74%.

-- Eighth-graders proficient in math: New Mexico, 14%; California, 22%; Virginia, 33%.

-- Fourth-graders proficient in reading: New Mexico, 21%; California, 21%; Virginia, 37%.

-- High school graduation: New Mexico, 57%; California, 71%; Virginia, 75%.

-- Young adults enrolled in college or with a degree: New Mexico, 39%; California, 50%; Virginia, 50%.

-- Adults with a two- or four-year college degree: New Mexico, 34%; California, 39%; Virginia, 43%.

-- Adults with income at or above the national median: New Mexico, 43%; California, 54%; Virginia, 57%.

-- Adults with a full-time job: New Mexico, 65%; California, 65%; Virginia, 72%.

California and other states that adopted clear academic expectations at every grade level early on have improved academically over the years, despite low rankings in the current report, said Swanson, whose research center also publishes the respected Education Week newspaper.

California's academic expectations, adopted in the late 1990s, are widely acknowledged to be among the most rigorous in the nation.

Despite the new report's nod to California's efforts, Jack O'Connell, the state superintendent of schools, called it a "sobering look at the current state of education and other services for California's children."

On Wednesday, he called on "businesses, government and communities" to join educators in improving children's chances of success in the state.
To see the full report, called "From Cradle to Career" and published in Education Week, go to www.edweek.org/go/qc07.

E-mail Nanette Asimov at nasimov@sfchronicle.com.

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